X Isn't Dead But Threads Could Replace It
Hey folks,
Free subscribers, welcome to your weekly issue. Yay! You get the reassurance that we were all wrong when we said Sam Altman had returned as CEO of OpenAI. He had not until Wednesday. Now he has. You're welcome. But my big write up is actually in two parts. My thoughts on Elon Musk's latest rant and in relation to that, the move that Threads is making that will test how competitive it really can be.
Happy Thursday all!
Tom
The Big Story
"Elon Musk says advertisers trying to 'blackmail' him: 'Go f--- yourself'"
"Musk says the antisemitic post was a “mistake.” - The Verge"
At the DealBook summit Wednesday, Elon Musk had a bit of a rant about the decline in advertising on the X platform. He likened the withdrawal of advertising money to blackmail, saying, “If somebody’s going to try to blackmail me with advertising? Blackmail me with money? Go f---yourself. Go. F---. Yourself. Is that clear? Hi Bob!” Apparently referring to Disney CEO Bob Iger who was in the audience. Musk added, “The whole world will know that those advertisers killed the company and we will document it in great detail." And also, "I have no problem being hated. Hate away.” He also said the post he made that many have considered antisemitic was a mistake. He said, "I should in retrospect not have replied to that one person and should have written in greater length what i meant. But those clarifications were ignored by the media and essentially I handed a loaded gun to those who hate me and arguably to those who are antisemitic. And for that I’m quite sorry, that was not my intention." He also called it “One of the most foolish — if not the most foolish — thing I’ve done on the platform.”
Yes. This will drive a few more people off the platform.
And no, this is not the behavior of someone who is a steady hand. I think we all agree on that. You can say that's an advantage, sure, but so far, at least for X, it has not been. And yet, X is still stumbling along and has one thing that keeps me from piling on the bandwagon of people declaring it dead. Every news story still looks to posts on X. CNBC quotes OpenAI's new Chairman’s post on X. The minute I start seeing news stories embedding something else, Threads, Mastodon, whatever, I will reassess my position. And it may happen, I won't be shocked. But that's still one of the main things keeping X going. Threads has actively positioned itself against being that. For now.
Speaking of Threads—
"Meta’s Threads to Launch in Europe in App’s Biggest Expansion Since Debut - WSJ"
Threads however is about to change. A lot of folks have not realized that Threads has been getting as much use as it has without all of Europe being on the platform. My guess is that Threads wanted to launch in the US but hadn’t separated out enough from Instagram to be clear of legal pitfalls in the EU. For instance, when it launcehd your Instagram And Threads account were one account. Not OK in the EU.
But it has now got everybody on board and done the work to separate accounts so that you can have a Threads account without having an Instagram account and even more important, read Threads without having to log in. I think this move was as likely because they were in a rush to take advantage of one of the many exoduses from X, as it was some master plan, but it worked out for them in the same way. So if the Wall Street Journal is right, and Threads launches in Europe in December, you're going to see a big explosion of attention, to the tune of up to 40 million monthly users.
But keep in mind Threads still has a long way to go. X still has 365 million users. Threads has 73 million, and even if it gets an additional 40 million that's still one third of X's user base. Their hope will be that bringing on Europe will have a halo effect around the world.
Other Stories
"Sam Altman officially back as OpenAI CEO: “We didn’t lose a single employee” | Ars Technica"
"Microsoft joins OpenAI’s board with Sam Altman officially back as CEO - The Verge"
"OpenAI chaos not about AI safety, says Microsoft boss"
You may be forgiven for thinking OpenAI had resolved its issues, but Wednesday is when it officially changed back to being run by Sam Altman. Emmett Shear officially stepped down and Altman resumed his role as CEO of OpenAI Nov. 29. Greg Brockman returned as President, but did not return to the board. Mira Murati is still CTO after briefly being interim CEO between Altman and Shear.
Tasha McCauley and Helen Toner officially resigned from OpenAI's board. Quora CEO Adam D'Angelo remained on the board and former Saleforce CEO Bret Taylor and former US treasury secretary Larry Summers have taken up their positions, with Taylor as Chairman. As for Ilya Sutskever, Altman said to employees, "I harbor zero ill will towards him. While Ilya will no longer serve on the board, we hope to continue our working relationship and are discussing how he can continue his work at OpenAI." Altman also had kind words for Shear, saying "Emmett’s dedication to AI safety and balancing stakeholders’ interests was clear."
So why did this happen? In an interview with The Verge, Altman deflected the question and said he'll wait for the board to be fleshed out and begin its independent investigation. Microsoft Brad Smith was willing to tell the BBC that he did not feel the dismissal of Altman was about safety or some kind of dangerous discovery, which seems to be many people's assumption. Smith said it wasn't fundamentally about a concern like that."
So we'll wait for this board report. Which means we have to wait for the board to get fully nominated. The word has been that the board will end being nine people, which means six more nominees. And possibly seven as Bret Taylor posted on X, "when these transitional tasks have been completed, I intend to step away and leave the oversight of OpenAI in the good hands of board colleagues." Finally, Microsoft has been given a "non-voting-observer" seat on the board, meaning they can send someone to the meetings but not vote on decisions.
There's where we are. Altman is back in charge. OpenAI's non-profit governing body has a new chairman. And we still don't know why Altman was fired in the first place. Stay tuned!
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